Apr 12, 2012  - There are signs of growing stress and tension in global economies, the financial system and societies, which are creating many confusing cross currents in financial markets.  This is reinforcing the enormous uncertainty over the trend of asset prices and evaluation of risk.  As a result, we continue to feel that a period of increasing strain in financial markets is likely and that investors should continue to underweight risk assets, maintain effective diversification and stay with quality stocks that have sound balance sheets and compelling value.

The U.S. remains awash with liquidity against a backdrop of a sub-par economic growth that exhibits many signs of fragility.  There is a complex mixture of strengths and weaknesses as the private economy is in the early stages of deleveraging.  The public sector has aided this transformation by increasing public sector leverage and monetary expansion at a prodigious rate.  The effect has been a levitation of stock prices, stabilization of the housing market and an economic recovery that is largely artificial.  The overarching questions are how long fiscal and monetary expansionism can be sustained and what the consequences will be when they are reversed.

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May 3, 2012 - Price inflation has softened recently in a number of countries.  Headline price inflation in the U.S. has slipped from 4% p.a. to a little under 3%, in the eurozone from 3% to 2.7% and in the UK from over 5% to 3.4%.  China’s non-food and producer price changes have actually moved into negative territory.  India and Russian inflation numbers show a decline from recent peaks of around 15% to the 6%-8% range.  Agricultural and industrial metal prices have dropped about 20% from the peaks of a year or so ago.  So, from a close up snapshot, one could ask, “Where is the inflation problem?”  However, that misses the point.  Price inflation is all about excessive money, credit and fiscal deficits.  When they work their way through the system, prices go up.  The key variable is the time lag.

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Forbes - These Books will make you Rich - Dec 2010

Financial Times - The Best Books for Bulls and Bears -  Nov 2010

London Evening Standard - The Books We Loved in 2010 - Nov 2010

Wall Street Journal (FINS) - Six Best Investing Books for 2010 - Sep 2010

Sample Recent Commentaries (click to view)

Second Chance for the Euro? Still not Clear - Dec 12,, 2011

Money, Credit & the Economy - Jun 2, 2011

U.S Sovereign Debt crisis:  Not if, but When - Apr 26, 2011

Fading Tailwinds - Apr 8, 2011

Why the Secular Bears are Wrong - Jan 17, 2011

U.S. Government Debt:  The Upward Spiral Continues - Sept. 1, 2010

Enough Blood in the Streets? - June 1, 2010

The Great Reflation - May 4, 2010

 
 
  
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